You have quite the cult following, for obvious reasons. But we can value the contributions of sub-optimal family Similarly, you could say that by definition a sufficiently advanced artificial intelligence is nice. http://dl.dropbox.com/u/5317066/2012-gwern-polyamory.txt The future being turned into paperclips. Eliezer: Well, the first law is, Do not harm a human nor through inaction allow a human to come to harm. You know, even as an English sentence, a whole lot more questionable. Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality - Wikipedia Theres all sorts of things that could be signs. teachable, especially to an unburdened mind not yet filled with the fallacies Its not obvious to me that there is a quantum leap to be made staying within just those dimensions of thinking about the problem. Sam: Which Ive read, and which is really worth reading. Our community contains many people in long-term relationships who are not married and are not waiting around to get married. If were supposed to wait until later to start on AI alignment: When? Thats the thing. Eliezer: I would describe myself as a decision theorist. He is famous for popularizing the idea of friendly artificial intelligence. Not perfectly, but a lot better than it used to be. They discarded the opening bookall the human experience of Go that was built into it. And that is one of the virtuesor one of the confusing elements, depending on where you come down on thisof this thought experiment of the paperclip maximizer. Wouldnt some enterprising researcher have investigated this already? How did that happen? Then my guess would be something like Kickstarter, but much better, that turned out to enable people in large groups to move forward when none of them could move forward individually. Because I was trying to make a point about what I would now call cognitive uncontainability. behave in a covert polygamy manner - which is not poly. Eliezer Yudkowsky @ESYudkowsky. I didn't know the original sense of "blessing", thanks for that. AlphaZero blew past all of that in less than a day, starting from scratch, without looking at any of the games that humans played, without looking at any of the theories that humans had about Go, without looking at any of the accumulated knowledge that we had, and without very much in the way of special-case code for Go rather than chessin fact, zero special-case code for Go rather than chess. These are just initial reactions. Including, for example, making paperclips. So while a poly relationship might be better for the Eliezer: Well, the unknowable is a concept you have to be very careful with. Im not doing that! The Ukrainian first lady and her husband were schoolmates but while they attended the same school and he knew most of her classmates, Olena and Volodymyr were not familiar with each other at the time. any cult has some qualities that distinguish it from all other cults, and those I think, for example, that if you have humans and you make the human smarter, this is not orthogonal to the humans values. I dont want to put absolute faith, because there is the replication crisis; but theres a lot of variations of this that found basically the same result. Which means that a lot of times, across a very broad range of final goals, there are similar strategies (we think) that will help get you there. Thanks. MIRI senior researcher Eliezer Yudkowsky was recently invited to be a guest on Sam Harris Waking Up podcast. If they're good decision theorists they will just not make commitments that can . Posted April 7, 2023 by Eliezer Yudkowsky & filed under Analysis. Its just that we would have to be so stupid to take that path that we are incredibly unlikely to take that path. He is a co-founder and research fellow at the Machine Intelligence Research Institute (MIRI), a private research nonprofit based in Berkeley, California. And though marriage is no longer mandatory, the government of this country, in its finite wisdom, has decreed legal benefits for marriage which some of us may not wish to deny ourselves, even if we haven't yet found a perfect romance out of storybooks, even if we might not want a perfect romance out of storybooks. Like, if people who slow down and do things right finish their work two years after the universe has been destroyed, thats an issue. How would you summarize your thesis? These are just is questions, just what actually happens to all the relevant minds, without remainder, and Ive yet to find an example of somebody giving me a real moral concern that wasnt at bottom a matter of the actual or possible consequences on conscious creatures somewhere in our light cone. There wont be some radical discontinuity that we need to worry about. It goes through things like the evolution of human intelligence and how the logic of evolutionary biology tells us that when human brains were increasing in size, there were increasing marginal returns to fitness relative to the previous generations for increasing brain size. Eliezer Yudkowsky's Inadequate Equilibria is a sharp and lively guidebook for anyone questioning when and how they can know better, and do better, than the status quo. So the orthogonality thesis is that an intelligence that pursues paperclips for their own sake, because thats what its utility function is, can be just as effective, as efficient, as the whole intergalactic civilization that is being paid to make paperclips. Sam: One thing this thought experiment does: it also cuts against the assumption that a sufficiently intelligent system, a system that is more competent than we are in some general sense, would by definition only form goals, or only be driven by a utility function, that we would recognize as being ethical, or wise, and would by definition be aligned with our better interest. For example, I think that there are people who have a lot of respect for intelligence, they are happy to envision an AI that is very intelligent, it seems intuitively obvious to them that this carries with it tremendous power, and at the same time, their respect for the concept of intelligence leads them to wonder at the concept of the paperclip maximizer: Why is this very smart thing just making paperclips?. AlphaGo was specialized on Go; it could learn to play Go better than its starting point for playing Go, but it couldnt learn to do anything else. This will just become of a piece with our growing cybersecurity concerns. Apart from working as a decision and artificial intelligence (AI) theorist, Yudkowsky is also a popular writer. Fermi said that a sustained critical chain reaction was 50 years off, if it could be done at all, two years before he personally oversaw the building of the first pile. View popular celebrities life details, birth signs and real ages. Discover Eliezer Yudkowsky's Biography, Age, Height, Physical Stats, Dating/Affairs, Family and career updates. The depth of the iceberg is: How do you actually get a sufficiently advanced AI to do anything at all? Our current methods for getting AIs to do anything at all do not seem to me to scale to general intelligence. There's probably a point of This is not here to be part of a narrative. Wow, that's a rather significant vow if taken literally. neither to arrange a system that requires mindreading how well the other person That analogy to evolutionyou can look at it from the other side. I mean, mostly I think this is like looking at the wrong part of the problem as being difficult. You cant get people for some reason to pay for the alleviation of that suffering, reliably. But apart from markets and governments, are there any other large hammers to be wielded here? Yudkowsky subsequently said that he had . It got a little bit distorted in being whispered on, into the notion of: Somebody builds a paperclip factory and the AI in charge of the paperclip factory takes over the universe and turns it all into paperclips. There was a lovely online game about it, even. Eliezer: I wouldnt say disparagement. Does that seem like a reasonable starting point? (laughs) Im pretty sure I wasnt the one who invented it. MIRI has also published Inadequate Equilibria, Yudkowsky's 2017 ebook on the subject of societal inefficiencies. father's blessing"). It built bees. bureaucratic wrangling it would take to make an exception. The couple has been together since 2013. this when signing an NDA. I think people are imagining that, yeah, we can build machines that will play chess, we can build machines that can learn to play chess better than any person or any machine even in a single day, but were never going to build general intelligence, because general intelligence requires the wetware of a human brain, and its just not going to happen. Theres this sort of intuitive way of thinking about it, which is that theres this sort of ill-understood connection between is and ought and maybe that allows a paperclip maximizer to have a different set of oughts, a different set of things that play in its mind the role that oughts play in our mind. could legally be viewed. It could be 50 years away. Access to the worlds data will be superhuman unless we isolate it from data. There are no details on her parents or siblings as that aspect of her life is kept private. One of the examples I give in the book is that my wife has Seasonal Affective Disorder, and she cannot be treated by the tiny little light boxes that your doctor tries to prescribe. Those are two hugely useful categories of doubt with respect to your thesis here, or the concerns were expressing, and I just want to point out that both have been put forward on this podcast. Video, Cognitive uncontainability and instrumental convergence, a certain narrow kind of unpredictability. Lets say that you have an alternative to Craigslist and your alternatives is Danslist, and Danslist is genuinely better. Is there anything to do, apart from publicizing the structure of this problem? one, at least. Quite a few organizations will shoot it down, either Theres a kind of disjunction that comes with more. Actually, as we know from experiments on pluralistic ignorance and bystander apathy, if you put three people in a room and smoke starts to come out from under the door, it only happens that anyone reacts around a third of the time. I do think that my version of the story would be something more like, Theyre not imagining enough changing simultaneously. Today, they have to emit blood, sweat, and tears to get their AI to do the simplest things. And this follows from the rapid capability gain thesis and at least the current landscape for how these things are developing. Sam: Right. I dont think weve addressed Neil deGrasse Tyson so much, this intuition that you could just shut it down. If they're good decision theorists, they will just not wish to know anything that their wishing to know would cause problems like that. Eliezer: Well, there was actually some amount of debate afterwards whether or not the version of the chess engine that it was tested against was truly optimal. Thats the kind of problem that scientists have with trying to get away from the journals that are just ripping them off. Not related to the ceremony (which reads beautifully, if overly poetically for my tastes), but would it not be a rational thing to give some upfront thought to how to detangle the two lives if and when they drift apart, despite their best effort? Eliezer: Not very much. We have a global society that has to have some agreement here, because who knows what China will be doing in 10 years, or Singapore or Israel or any other country. AlphaZero could be a sign. Whats your business plan? Sam: So talk about the distinction between general and narrow intelligence a little bit more. about lower total utility to them both than if the spouse had never wished to If you encounter any problems with this mirror, please contact webmaster@hpmor.com. Even if all you are trying to do is end up with two identical strawberries on a plate without destroying the universe, I think thats already 90% of the work, if not 99%. Sam: Theyre just simulated minds in a dating app thats being optimized for real people who are outside holding the phone, but yeah. You dont know whats impossible to it. The tools were using to think these thoughts obviously are the results of a cognitive architecture that has been built up over millions of years by natural selection, but again its been built based on a very simple principle of survival and adaptive advantage with the goal of propagating our genes. Thus the challenge is one of mechanism design to design a mechanism for evolving AI under a system of checks and balances, and to give the systems utility functions that will remain friendly in the face of such changes. Were navigating in the space of possible experiences, and that includes everything we can care about or claim to care about. And by analogy, he suggests that we think about what natural selection has actually optimized us to do, which is incredibly simple: merely to spawn and get our genes into the next generation and stay around long enough to help our progeny do the same, and thats more or less it. has mindread you and chosen to self modify to not want the thing that you would Rationalism may not be heritable, but intelligence surely is. So this alignment problem isthe general concern is that even with the seemingly best goals put in, we could build something (especially in the case of something that makes changes to itselfand well talk about this, the idea that these systems could become self-improving) whose future behavior in the service of specific goals isnt totally predictable by us. any deviation from good decision theory at any time to cause problems. Similarly, if were guessing that a paperclip maximizer tries to deceive you into believing that its a human eudaimonia maximizeror a general eudaimonia maximizer if the people building it are cosmopolitans, which they probably are. A post shared by Olena Zelenska (@olenazelenska_official). Do you vow to reveal all your concerns about your relationshipas they appear to youdespite all embarrassment and fear; so that if the other stays silent you may trust that there is nothing to be said. Eliezer: I mean, I would potentially object a little bit to the way that Nick Bostrom took the word orthogonality for that thesis. So an example of a problem is: Lets say you have Craigslist, which is one system where buyers and sellers meet to buy and sell used things within a local geographic area. The Only Way to Deal With the Threat From AI? Shut It Down | Time You could put together any kind of mind, including minds with properties that strike you as very absurd. or is this just speculation based on personal anecdote? Sam: Yeah. other skill / field of knowledge where the teacher is reliably competent and So why isnt this one of the first things you find when you Google What do I do about Seasonal Affective Disorder when the light box doesnt work? And thats what takes this sort of long story, thats what takes the analysis. Eliezer's speech, obviously.) The bias mostly seems to be from observing people who are new So, we havent gotten our act together in any noticeable way, and weve continued to make progress. Guest Posts more weight on. We could be essentially creating hells and populating them. Humans are much more domaingeneral than mice. (or some similar organization). Eliezer: But thats the sort of thing that you are built to care about. Eliezer Yudkowsky on the Dangers of AI - Econlib [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nikah_mut%E2%80%98ah] and something you see pop up Before taking the office of the first lady, Zelenska was a screenwriter and also co-founder of the Studio Kvartal 95 which has predominantly been utilized for the creation of films, cartoons, TV shows, and many others. than that for a first marriage, because the divorce rate of approximately .5 He is happily married to his beautiful spouse Brienne Yudkowsky in 2013. Theres similarly another narrative which says that AI is sort of lifeless, unreflective, just does what its told, and to these people its perfectly obvious that an AI might just go on making paperclips forever. I think were getting up on the two-hour mark here, and I want to touch on your new book, which as I said Im halfway through and finding very interesting. And what these always say is, I dont know how to build an artificial general intelligence. One thing I think we should do here is close the door to what is genuinely a cartoon fear that I think nobody is really talking about, which is the straw-man counterargument we often run into: the idea that everything were saying is some version of the Hollywood scenario that suggested that AIs will become spontaneously malicious. Our current methods of alignment do not scale, and I think that all of the actual technical difficulty that is actually going to shoot down these projects and actually kill us is contained in getting the whole thing to work at all. Weddings are rituals. Its an honor to be here. Interesting Files "deputy commissioner of marriages" for the purpose of one ceremony. Yeah, it was pretty great when spoken live. Dearly beloved, we are gathered here upon this day, to bear witness to William Ryan and Divia Melwani, as they bind themselves together in marriage, becoming William and Divia Eden, from this day endeavoring to live their lives as one. Do you want to start us off on that? William and Divia have chosen to bind their lives together. Some may not be planning to stay together until the stars go out - just enjoy the marriage for however long it lasts. Latin, whereas blessing [http://www.etymonline.com/index.php?term=bless] is old I just did it the hard way. Sam: Right, let me reboot that. Go is now, along with Chess, ceded to the machines. They married in September 2003. I would call that AI alignment, following Stuart Russell. Kevin Bigley Movies and TV shows- Facts About the American Actor, Who Is Olena Zelenska? She is active on Instagram with about 1,708 followers. They already have the concept of government trying to correct it. How long does it take? I mean, people in artificial intelligence have understood why that does not work for years and years before this debate ever hit the public, and sort of agreed on it. COMPLETE. The quote is variously attributed to Stalin and Napoleon and I think Clausewitz and like a half a dozen people who have claimed this quote. Does it therefore follow that I shouldnt go for a walk? I have no idea how to build an artificial general intelligence. And this feels to them like saying that it must be impossible and very far off. Eliezer: I have much clearer ideas about how to go around tackling the technical problem than tackling the social problem. So in particular I think that theres a certain narrow kind of unpredictability which does seem to be plausibly in some sense essential, which is that for AlphaGo to play better Go than the best human Go players, it must be the case that the best human Go players cannot predict exactly where on the Go board AlphaGo will play. These are places where intelligence does converge with other kinds of value-laden qualities of a mind, but generally speaking, they can be kept apart for a very long time. All you need is a certain kind of system that repeatedly asks the is question What leads to the greatest number of paperclips? and then does that thing. So whats the best version of his argument, and why is he wrong? I think that this is just the way the background variables are turning up. But this idea that we could build an intelligent system that would try to manipulate us, or that it would deceive us, that seems like pure anthropomorphism and delusion to people who consider this for the first time. This does not arise from Go players or even Go-and-chess players or a system that bundles together twenty different things it can do as special cases. I've been to 40+ weddings in my lifetime, and this was my favorite ceremony yet. Sam: Lets just step back for a second. I've never seen anything beyond personal opinion and armchair philosophy that This is not a prediction. The main way in which I would be worried about conscious systems emerging within the system without that happening on purpose would be if you have a smart general intelligence and it is trying to model humans. So, how much is Eliezer Yudkowsky worth at the age of 43 years old? His net worth has been growing significantly in 2022-2023. Its a big deal if you know that theres a spaceship on its way toward Earth and its going to get here in about 30 years at the current rate., But we dont even know that. I suppose we should define intelligence first, and then jump into the differences between strong and weak or general versus narrow AI. We have no explicit goal of doing fitness maximization. What do you mean by alignment, as in the alignment problem? up, on Oct 31st!) believe in religion, and (like me) you fear that the government has its own Do you vow both singly and together to accept full responsibility for the children you will bring into the world. Wherever the first artificial general intelligence is from, its going to be in a research lab specifically dedicated to doing it, for the same reason that the first airplane didnt spontaneously assemble in a junk heap. His father Oleksandr Zelenskyy worked at the Kryvyi Rih State University of Economics and Technology as a professor and head of the Department of Cybernetics and Computing Hardware which is the same University where Olena and Volodymyr studied. A paperclip maximizer is not one of those agents, but humans are. Eliezer: So, one way to look at the book is that its about how you can get crazy, stupid, evil large systems without any of the people inside them being crazy, evil, or stupid. How do you think you know it? Lets strip off a bit more so we can get in the front.if you have this scenario, and by a miracle the first people to cross the finish line have actually not screwed up and they actually have a functioning powerful artificial general intelligence that is able to prevent the world from ending, you have to prevent the world from ending. Peter and Julia met sometime in 2018 and commenced dating immediately. Michael Bunin Bio: Age, Wife, Is He In iCarly? The reason why its slightly more reasonable than the dirty shirts and straw example is that maybe it is indeed true that if you just have people pushing on narrow AI for another 10 years past the point where AGI would otherwise become possible, they eventually just sort of wander into AGI. MIRI senior researcher Eliezer Yudkowsky was recently invited to be a guest on Sam Harris' "Waking Up" podcast. Eliezer Yudkowsky was born on 11 September, 1979 in Chicago, Illinois, United States, is an American blogger, writer, and artificial intelligence researcher. In this day, and in this community, you know that you might actually be getting married at zero point zero zero zero and some more zeroes one percent of the way through your life. Again, this is the alignment problem. A more fundamental principle here is that, obviously, a physical system can manipulate another physical system. Where is the Zelenskyy family in the wake of the 2022 Russian invasion? We wouldnt forget to perform scientific research, so we could discover better ways of making paperclips. The big big problem is, Nobody knows how to make the nice AI. You ask people how to do it, they either dont give you any answers or they give you answers that I can shoot down in 30 seconds as a result of having worked in this field for longer than five minutes.
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